Friday, May 17, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,301.8 +1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 39,986.4 +1.2%
  • NASDAQ 16,685.9 +2.11%
  • Russell 2000 2,094.7 +1.7%
  • NYSE FANG+ 10,393.9 +2.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 170.6 +4.0%
  • Wilshire 5000 52,726.2 +1.5%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,448.4 +1.7%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,759.59 +1.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 834.8 +.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.4 -1.2%
  • NYSE Technology 4,855.3 +2.7%
  • Transports 15,477.4 -.70%
  • Utilities 950.61 +.9%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.1 +1.9%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.70 +3.0%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 208.8 -.87%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 110.6 +.88%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 504,533 +.72%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.0 +141.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,009 +393
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -27.5 +15.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 215,444 -18.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,836,765 +2.4%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -16.3%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.09 -9.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 150.0 +11.3 points
  • NYSE Arms .82 -38.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .93 -12.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.0 -2.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .24 -46.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.1 -12.3%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.73 -3.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.74 -1.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,830.3 +1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  89.3 -2.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.049 Trillion +.27%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$6.891 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 40.9 +.3%
  • AAII % Bears 23.3 -2.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +17.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 289.4 unch.
  • Crude Oil 80.10/bbl. +2.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 257.60 +2.7%
  • Natural Gas 2.64 +15.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.8 euros/megawatt-hour +3.0%
  • Heating Oil 248.7 +2.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 141.0 (1,000/metric ton) -.7%
  • Gold 2,413.4 +2.4%
  • Silver 31.3 +11.0%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 488.9 +3.4%
  • Copper 507.1 +8.9%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 381.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • CME Lumber  528.0 -1.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,483.9 -2.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton -.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +3.6% -60.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.16 +61.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 40.9 -84.7%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.80 +.50:  Growth Rate +14.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.90% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.36 +1.26: Growth Rate +36.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.8 +.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.2 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -4.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -3.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 8.9%(+5.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 91.1%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 6/12
  • US Dollar Index 104.5 -.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,736.8 +.65%
  • Bitcoin/USD 66,634.5 +9.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.8 +.96%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -40.75 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.42% -8.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.268 Trillion -.67%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.397 Billion +3.2%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $109.595 Billion -2.7%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.4 -2.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.90 -4.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 -4.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.26 -.73%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.89 -6.7%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 140.95 +.45%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.48 -1.8%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.79 -2.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.8%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 100.3 +2.8%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.1% +10.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% -11.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% -16.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.1 -2.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 113.0 -12.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 292.0 -2.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.06 -3.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 168.9 -5.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 157.3 -3.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 733.0 -13.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .59 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,295.3B -2.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 217,750 +1.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.9 +.6%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.28% -9.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 198,100 +.51%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.30% +90.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $120.9M +21.8%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.60/gallon -.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,817.0 -14.7%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,510.6/40 ft Box +11.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,311.9 +6.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 56.9 +4.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 259,429 +3.9%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,795,268 +21.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value +.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Networking +5.5%
  • Video Gaming +5.0%
  • Computer Hardware +4.7%
  • Digital Health +4.6%
  • Gold & Silver +4.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Restaurants -.5%
  • Industrials -.6%
  • Road & Rail -1.4%
  • Construction -2.5%
  • Education -2.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)
  • DESP, DOCS, OUST, RDDT, HOOD, GATO, CCJ, SWIN, HBM, AFRM, ERO, MUX, ONON, PSLV, AGI, ZTO, PAAS, MAG, CB, DV, LBTYK, FUTU and JD
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)
  • FLO, AGRO, GLOB, IEP, CBRL and DXC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (LI)/1.75
After the Close: 
  • (KEYS)/1.39
  • (NDSN)/2.31
  • (PANW)/1.25
  • (ZM)/1.19
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, American Thoracic Society Conference and the TD Cowen Sustainability Week could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 20.9 -3.2
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 50.7% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .69 -33.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$160.4M
  • 135 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 64.4% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.0 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.8 +.36%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,175.9 -.16%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Greed) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 6.9 -27.6%
  • Vix 12.3 -1.4%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -6.0%

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk 
  • @wideawake_media
  • @MarioNawful
  • TUCKER: BILL GATES IS PRO-DEATH?! Aaron Rodgers: "I think there's some people that want depopulation. There's been a video of Bill Gates - people think it's taken out of context - but if you look at his track record and what he's done around the world, I don't know that he's a proponent of all life and people having more kids." Tucker Carlson: "I think he's strongly pro-death from what I can tell." (video)
  • @IAPolls2022
  •  @SteveLovesAmmo
  • @Resist_CBDC
  • @VigilantFox
  • @zerohedge
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @kylenabecker
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @matthewlohmeier
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @amuse
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @alifarhat79
  •  @Lewis_Brackpool
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.90 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.9 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.8 +.44%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminishing China Economy Fears, Technical Buying, Insurance/Food Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 +1.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .43 -28.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.3 -1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.2 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 -.58%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.4 +2.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 139.0 +3.0
  • Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -51.3%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$147.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.1 +.24%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 257.7 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 +1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.1 -.09%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 169.1 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.6 -3.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.2 +.52%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 128.9 -.01%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.0 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 738.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.6 -3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -1.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +5.3% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.73 +.10:  Growth Rate +14.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.04 +.15: Growth Rate +36.1% unch., P/E 31.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 -18.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -41.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% -20.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.4% +.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 50.7%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long